The impact of COVID-19 on gastric cancer incidence in Kazakhstan

Abstract

Objective: to evaluate the effect of COVID-19 on gastric cancer incidence by component analysis.

Methods. The data obtained from the Ministry of Healthcare of the Republic of Kazakhstan concerning GC (Form no. 7) was retrospectively studied by descriptive and analytical epidemiology methods. The component method was used to analyze GC incidence dynamics based on the number of cases from 2011 to 2020.

Results. Analyzing 2011 and 2020, we found an apparent reduction in the risk of GC. If in the period before the pandemic the number of cases increased by 0.1%, then during the pandemic the number of cases of registered gastric cancer decreased by 6.7%. The GC incidence decreased from 2019 to 2020. The incidence decreased by −1.16⁰/₀₀₀₀ due to changes in the age structure of the population (∑Δ_A=+0.22⁰/₀₀₀₀), the risk of getting GC (∑Δ_R=−1.37⁰/₀₀₀₀), and combined impact of age structure and the risk of getting GC (∑Δ_AR=−0.02⁰/₀₀₀₀). According to the calculations of the component analysis, 2,757 patients were expected in 2020. Instead, the number of patients decreased to 2,497 due to fewer cases because of the changes in the risk of getting GC.

Conclusion. In Kazakhstan, the incidence of gastric cancer tended to decrease. But due to safety measures in connection with the global pandemic in 2020, the incidence rate has decreased even more significantly. Most likely, this was influenced by a decrease in the diagnostic measures carried out to detect gastric cancer. The results of this study are recommended for use in improving the organization of anticancer activities.