Trends of Breast Cancer in Astana (2012-2021): Component Analysis of Incidence

Abstract

The purpose of this study: to evaluate the incidence of breast cancer (BC) in Astana using component analysis.
Methods. In a retrospective study of the data of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan on new cases of BC in Astana, obtained from Form No. 7, descriptive and analytical methods of epidemiology were used. Component analysis was used to analyze the dynamics of incidence based on the number of cases from 2012 to 2021.
Results. During the study period (2012-2021), 2.672 new cases of BC were registered in Astana. The average age of the patients was 55.7 years. The average annual incidence of BC in Astana was 53.0±1.7 (95% CI=49.7-56.2) per 100.000 population. The general growth in incidence was +1.0⁰/₀₀₀₀. The overall increase was +2.69⁰/₀₀₀₀ and depended on changes in the age structure of the population (∑ΔA=+5.40⁰/₀₀₀₀), the risk of getting sick (∑ΔR=−3.40⁰/₀₀₀₀) and the combined effect of the age structure and the risk of getting sick (∑ΔAR=+0.68⁰/₀₀₀₀). According to the calculations of the component analysis, 369 patients were expected in 2021. However, the number of patients was 322. Thus, BC is characterized by an increase in cases, mainly due to population growth (+56.8% of the total increase by +64.5%).
Conclusion. Our research highlights the rise in breast cancer cases linked to demographic factors, primarily population growth. Simultaneously, there's a decrease in the disease's risk factor, possibly attributed to successful screening efforts. This underscores the significance of enhancing healthcare policies and raising public awareness of cancer prevention as key measures to alleviate the disease burden.